Equities jump higher after the opening bell. The utilities, UTIL, leap higher looking for 470, then committed hari-kari, UTIL now falling under 466. Thus, the market bears crack a smile since UTIL under 466.79 will create market negativity. Note the collapse in copper today. JJC dropped under 46 now trying to hug that support. With utes in trouble today, and copper leaking, Keybot the Quant is close to flipping to the short side. JJC 45.80 is critical. If JJC loses another twenty cents today, the broad indexes will be selling off in force.
The SPX ran to 1502 but could not hold the level. The HOD is 1502.26 interestingly one penny shy of yesterday's, and the 2013 intraday high, at 1502.27. The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart. The bulls curled the 8 back upwards at the bell as explained in this mornings chart. The high at 1502, matching yesterday's high, came with negative divergence as explained this morning and that created the spank down to 1496 support. Price is now bouncing along sideways. Bears got nothing unless the 8 MA stabs down thru the 34 MA. The 10-year yield jumped to 1.93% now back to 1.91%. Higher yields encourage the equity bulls. WTIC oil retreated from way above 96 this morning to go negative, in concert with copper weakness, oil now at 95.80.
CAT and JOY are weak, two proxies for China. Note the roll over with FXI and the jump in FXP. Something is going on in China and only the insiders know about it so far. Commodities pulling back, machinery, perhaps someone is looking at China data that tells a different story than all the recent bullish hype? UTIL is now tumbling to 465.45. JJC now under 46 to 45.96. All Hades will break loose if copper loses more ground and JJC drops under 45.80. Today's trading session may become dramatic. This morning's money pump is having trouble boosting markets with the SPX stumbling sideways since the open. The New Home Sales were weak with better revisions created a sharp downward pivot at 10 AM kicking in the negative divergence on the minute charts. Volume remains lackluster.
Note Added 1/25/13 at 12:42 PM: UTIL moves above 466.79 so the bulls play on, refusing to give any ground. JJC is 46.04 twenty-four cents above danger. The bulls want to try and hold on into the weekend, perhaps a close above SPX 1500 will occur making the newspaper headline writers' job easy. The 10-year yield is 1.93% helping equity bulls. The euro is 1.3458 helping the bull case. UTIL 466.79 and JJC 45.80 dictate broad market direction today. Both are bullish now creating market bullishness.
Note Added 1/25/13 at 2:00 PM: UTIL remains above 466.79. JJC is 46.10. The 10-year yield is 1.94%, another tick higher. The euro is 1.3462. VIX is 12.82. TRIN is 0.65, uber bullish, and will deliver the markets in the bulls hands all day long. Bears do not have a chance unless they send the TRIN back towards 1.00. The SPX is testing 1502 again which would accelerate a move to the strong 1505 resistance. A new HOD occurs for 2013 at 1502.55 and price is coming back up now.
Note Added 1/25/13 at 2:12 PM: SPX punches thru 1502, and there is 1503. The SPX continues higher from the 11 AM pump today. UTIL hits 469. The 200-day MA for UTIL is 468.85 so utilities would signal that they want to go higher if this support level holds. The SPX 15-minute, 30-minute, 1-hour and 2-hour are setting up with negative divergence again, this is wash and rinse, over and over, ditto the UTIL charts, which say that prices should roll over, if not into the close today, than Monday. WTIC oil moves to and fro across 96 today in concert with the broad indexes moving up and down. Bears need to send oil lower, bulls want to see oil float higher.
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